Didn't Get Rich by Writing Checks

For years, there have been two Holy Grails for mobile devices: (1) Beat the iPhone, and (2) Run Flash.  The first has proven to be surprisingly hard, even after years of innovation and millions (billions) invested by several competitors.  Personally I prefer my Droid because it has a physical keyboard (and other advantages), but the conventional wisdom still weights in favor of the iPhone.

But the second chalice is about to be seized.  By Google.

Why is Flash so important?  Because it's responsible for most of the rich media content on the web today.  Whether you're watching Keyboard Cat on Youtube, Lost on Hulu, or world events on CNN.com, you need Flash.  For the last year or so, Youtube has released apps for various devices that would let them watch Youtube, but that's not real flash.  (And recently, that app showed its limitations when it wouldn't let me watch I'm On A Boat, while I was on a boat.)  

It's only in the last few years that a pocket-sized device has had the power to run Flash, and yet cell phone makers have been slow to capitalize.  In some cases, it's because they've been focusing on the wrong market, like Blackberry.  In other cases, it's because they're still finding their sea legs, like Android.  In other cases, it's supposedly because of spite.  Like Apple.

There's been a lot of buzz lately about how Steve Jobs unilaterally made the decision not to support Flash on the iPhone, and it's a decision he's sticking to.  The analysts all think it's because Adobe snubbed Apple in the late 90's.  Steve Jobs is notorious for being hot-headed and holding grudges.  And in the glossy white plastic world of high technology, what's more compelling than some old-fashioned emotional drama?  But maybe Jobs is obfuscating the obvious with the silly.

After all, there's been huge demand for this feature, from consumers and developers.  Those are the two most important demographics, and Apple has cultivated a long history of courting both.  Steve Jobs, of all people, knows better than to rest on his laurels.  Competitors may not have beat the iPhone yet, but they're getting closer and he knows it.  He knows he needs to work to maintain his competitive advantage, so why is he supposedly letting personal spite stand in the way of success?

The answer: he isn't.  Jobs may be a passionate inventor with a flair for the dramatic, but he's also a wildly successful businessman.  Ultimately, the bottom line is the bottom line.  And Apple's bottom line is that it makes more money by selling rich media through its own portal, the iTunes service, which works best if you have an iMac, iPod, iPhone, Apple TV, or iPad.  Using Apple's hardware and Apple's software, you can download music, TV shows, movies, and current events on podcasts.  All for money, most of which goes straight into Apple's pockets.  Why on earth would Apple want to fling open the door to line the pockets of competitors like Youtube (which is owned by rival Google) or Hulu?

In a Simpsons episode, Bill Gates says "I didn't get rich by writing checks."  My point is that successful businessmen are successful because they're businessmen.  Steve Jobs knows this, but it doesn't fit his carefully crafted image to say "I don't want to support flash because I want to take your money."  So he finds an excuse that incorporates passion, emotion, and loyalty--the very things the Apple brand pretends to stand for.

And, predictably, in rides Google, the shining white knight of open source.  Google's new smartphone OS, Android, is built on a foundation of openness, and in Google's case it's not just talk.  The ubiquitous "Droid Does" ads aren't lying; you really can do almost anything with this phone.  If Adobe wants Flash on Android, all they have to do is ask.  

Which they have.

At the Web 2.0 expo, an Adobe rep told me that Adobe Flash 10 will be released for Android.  The public beta will be unveiled at the Google expo in a couple weeks and will be available the same day, to anyone with an Android phone.  After that, it's only a matter of time before the iPhone falls out of favor as the "best" smartphone.

Bottom line: it's another win for open source.  And Apple stays locked into the familiar old pattern of limiting its own market.

J<

PS: Credit to my wife, Yelena, for being the first one to see through Steve Jobs' flimsy excuse.