More predictions from someone who should know

I previously talked about the "You Will" ads from AT&T in the early 90's and how they were surprisingly accurate--about ten years ahead of time. This time: Apple predictions, 20 years ahead of time.

[googlevideo]http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5144094928842683632[/googlevideo]

Slim form factors: Check. Hugely bulky desktop computers have given way to laptops, tablets, and flat panel monitors. Bluetooth peripherals and wireless internet mean fewer wires. The result: your desk looks more like a desk, and less like mission control.

On the other hand, most people prefer larger form factors. Yelena has a laptop with a 15" monitor and a built-in keyboard and trackpad. But she prefers to connect a large external keyboard, mouse, and monitor. This is a case of the computer company not predicting people's preferences. Bigger, ergonomic interfaces are more comfortable. They also look cooler.

Voice recognition: Check. Apple introduced voice recognition for personal computers in the mid-1990's. Microsoft and Linux have it now too. It surprises me that it isn't more popular. I think it's because people are comfortable using buttons, why learn something new? Also, people like to talk to other people and they don't want the computer butting in. If my little sister comes in and starts bugging me and I tell her to quit it, I don't want my computer to close down my document.

The exception: cell phones. Voice recognition on cell phones is AWESOME. With my new phone, I can have conversations just like the ones portrayed in this video.
Me:

Phone: "Please say a command or name."
Me: "Aaron Mohammed."
Phone: "Would you like Aaron Mohammed's home, or mobile?"
Me: "Mobile."
Phone: "Now dialing Aaron Mohammed mobile."
I can also tell my phone to start the web browser or play music. When I receive a text message, my phone will read it to me. I love it.

Touch screens: Check. Again, it's surprising that it hasn't taken off more on desktop computers. But touch screens are nearly ubiquitous on smartphones, handhelds and tablets. And there is wide speculation that the next generation of iPods will have touch screens as well.

Interactive voicemail and call waiting: Most voicemail systems talk to you these days. "Jordan is not available. Please leave a message at the sound of the beep. For more options, press 5." Frankly it's a little annoying; it takes nearly a full minute just to be able to leave someone a message. There's also instant messenger:
Me: "Hey Aaron, what's up?"
Aaron: "Auto-reply: I am away from my computer right now."
The computer handles incoming messages for you and tells people your status.

And, of course, call waiting with caller ID. Most phones now (cell phones and land lines) not only let you know when you have an incomming call, even if you're already on the line, but they tell you who the new caller is so you can decide whether to take the call or not.

Instantly searching for information via worldwide computer networks: Check. We usually don't do it by voice command, although we could if we wanted to (see above). The truth is, a professor like that guy would prefer to use a complicated search form in order to quickly narrow down the data he wants. But that doesn't look as cool in a six-minute advertisement.

Instantly collaborating with colleagues and sharing documents: Check. Not only do instant messengers allow you to communicate, they also allow you to instantly transmit files back and forth.

Video conferencing: Check. Again, I'm not sure why this isn't more ubiquitous. I think partially because you have to buy it separately, and it's one more thing to learn (unless you have a fancy new Mac). Also, I think this is another case of the computer company not predicting people's preferences. The truth is I often answer the phone in my pj's. I don't always want the other person to know what I look like.

The big exception, of course, is in the business and academic world. They LOVE video conferencing. In fact, my bar prep course consists of a series of videos being played in a lecture hall. That's not live, but I have friends who did engage in live classroom videoconferencing.

Tiny removable media: Check. In 1988 people were still using 5 1/4" floppy disks. Now we have thumb drives that can transfer many gigabytes of information in seconds. But . . . why would you want to? It's so easy to transfer things wirelessly.

Personal information managers (PIMs): Check. Every morning my smartphone tells me what the day's appointments are. It also manages my address book and to do list. If I want to give Yelena the shopping list, all I have to do is beam it from my smartphone to her smartphone.

A little man in the corner of your screen who talks to you: Yes, but no one likes him. Apple started doing this with their voice recognition software in the mid-1990's. But since no one uses voice recognition software on their personal computers, no one needs the little man. Microsoft started doing this in their Office suite, and people fucking hated the little paper clip. They hated him so much that when Microsoft came out with a new version of Office, they actually advertised the fact that he was gone. This is another case of the company not anticipating people's preferences. Why? I think it's because people want to be left alone when they use their computer. They have an idea of what they want and they don't want a tiny man telling them what to do. (I also get in trouble when I try to tell Yelena, "there's an easier way to do that.")

Electronic appointments: Check. Again, this is mostly in the business world. Pretty much everyone uses Microsoft Exchange, which allows you to link the calendars of different people and create appointments and meetings without even talking to them. Kaiser does this as well: I can simply go to the website and request an appointment with my doctor, I don't even have to talk to a secretary. I even have this feature for myself: I keep my calendar on my smartphone and periodically syncronize it with Yahoo. Yahoo then displays my personal calendar online. If you want to know when I'm free, just check the calendar. If you're an authorized friend, you can even create appointments which will then syncronize back onto my smartphone.

Moms still don't understand new technology: Actually, my mom's done a pretty good job of this. She found it difficult to climb the learning curve, but now she has high-speed internet, instant messaging, a bluetooth wireless headset, and an mp3 player. But she still nags me. They got that part right.