Have you ever made prescient predictions about technology?

koppie

You will. And the company that will bring it to you?

http://www.youtube.com/embed/TZb0avfQme8

AT&T did a pretty good job predicting things ten years down the road. Let's take a look:

  1. Borrowed a book from thousands of miles away: yes We have Project Gutenberg, which provides thousands of public-domain books online for free. I was using this to read Shakespeare in undergrad. Also, the SF Public Library has a deal with some online library to provide online versions of many copyrighted books, as well as multimedia. When I wanted to learn Russian, I was able to download the Pimsleur tapes from the library. In this case, we've exceeded AT&T's prediction.
  2. Crossed the country without stopping for directions: HELL YES GPS, baby. Exactly as shown on the ad. "In a quarter of a mile, merge left onto US 101." What they didn't predict: it'll nag you when you stop for a snack.
  3. Sent someone a "fax" from the beach: kind of My friend Les has a card in his computer that taps straight into the network. Anywhere you can get cell reception, you have internet. Also, a lot of beach resorts have wifi. But no one sends faxes any more, so in this respect we've exceeded their predictions. Also, they showed the guy using a tablet PC. We have those. We also have fantastic laptops (they didn't back then). We also have Pocket PC's and Blackberries. If someone really needed to send a business-related message from the beach, that's probably how they'd do it.
  4. Paid a toll without slowing down: HELL YES Five words: Fastrack. Bay Bridge. Rush hour.
  5. Bought concert tickets from cash machines: yes They have ticket kiosks at playhouses and movie theaters. But why wouldn't you just buy ahead of time from Fandango? In this respect, we've exceeded their prediction.
  6. Tucked your baby in from a phone booth: kind of Phone booths are still phone booths, although they're fancier if you go to Europe (no thanks to AT&T). We have webcams, but most people still don't use them. Apple may change this. So AT&T was right, the technology is there, but it's not being used.
  7. Opened doors with the sound of your voice: kind of We have RFID instead. It's mostly for cars, but some newer apartment buildings are giving people RFID keys (my uncle has this).
  8. Carried your medical history in your wallet: kind of Hospitals and clinics have national shared computer databases. If you walk into a Kaiser anywhere in the country, they'll be able to pull up your info in seconds (like on the ad). And if you go into a different hospital, they'll find your Kaiser card in your wallet, call them, and get the data transfered within minutes. We could carry the data in our wallets, but no one does. So AT&T was right, the technology is there, but it's not being used.
  9. Attended a meeting in your bare feet: yes This is similar to the baby thing. Lots of people telecommute (I used to). But that's not quite the same as attending a meeting. Still, most corporate board rooms have videoconferencing equipment now. If the Chairman of the Board doesn't want to break his vacation, he can use his laptop and a webcam to attend the meeting remotely. If he has an iBook, it's built in. What AT&T didn't consider: the power of the handshake is still there. The technology is there, and it's used, but most people would still rather fly halfway across the world to look the other person in the eye, rather than negotiate over the web. My buddy Aaron just flew to Singapore to represent his father's company in face-to-face negotiations. So AT&T was right, the technology is there, and it is being used, but it hasn't transformed business.
  10. Watched the movie you wanted to, when you wanted to: yes Digital cable on demand, baby. Plus movie downloads and Netflix sending DVDs to your door.
  11. Learned special things from faraway places: yes Classroom K at UC Hastings is rigged with videoconferencing equipment so classes can be linked across the country. My friend Aaron did this in undergrad; his class at UC Davis linked with the same class at UC Santa Cruz. There are a lot of internet-based correspondence courses and "distance learning" programs. I get offers all the time to attend "webcasts" of legal lectures.

"And the company that will bring it to you: AT&T." Sorry, no. Not only has AT&T not developed any of these technologies, but they didn't even manage to stay in business. They got bought up my one of the Baby Bells: SBC. Still, AT&T had a much better brand--this is what lawyers call purchasing the company's "goodwill." So now Pac Bell and SBC have both rebranded themselves AT&T, but AT&T itself was unable to bring us any of these cool technologies. Still, it's fun when predictions of the future not only come true, but are even cooler than we imagined. Thanks to my buddy Rob for sending me the video. J< PS: I can embed Youtube videos in my blog now, thanks to Viper's Video Quicktags. My blog is soaring to new degrees of coolness.